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Indonesia Coal & MinerbaOne Market Update

SMARTIN News — Market Intelligence | July 2026

Indonesia’s coal sector continues to move through a period of regulatory recalibration, operational adjustments, and shifting export dynamics. MinerbaOne activity remains elevated as miners work through compliance requirements for the 2026 cycle, creating ripple effects across production planning and shipment schedules. 

RKAB Approval Cycle Still in Motion

The 2026 RKAB (Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya) approval process remains ongoing for many mid‑tier and smaller miners. Several companies are still awaiting final validation, resulting in:

  • Delayed production ramp‑ups
  • Slower issuance of export recommendations
  • Increased dependency on interim approvals


This has created uneven supply visibility for traders and operators planning Q3–Q4 shipments.

Export Permit Tightening

Regulatory checks have intensified across multiple provinces. MinerbaOne has increased scrutiny on:

  • Production reporting accuracy
  • Royalty payment compliance
  • Environmental documentation


As a result, some miners are experiencing longer lead times before receiving export clearance, affecting vessel nomination timelines and FOB scheduling.

Domestic Market Price (HBA) Shows Upward Pressure

The HBA reference price has shown mild upward movement driven by:

  • Steady regional demand from India and China
  • Weather‑related disruptions in competing supply regions
  • Higher domestic consumption from PLN and industrial users


This upward pressure is influencing contract negotiations for both spot and term shipments.

Operational Impact on Shipments

 Field intelligence indicates:

  • Stockpile fluctuations at several East Kalimantan loading points
  • Barge scheduling congestion due to uneven miner output
  • Anchorage density increasing at Balikpapan and Muara Berau
  • More cautious vessel nomination from operators awaiting miner confirmation


These factors are contributing to tighter scheduling windows and increased reliance on real‑time coordination.

Market Outlook

 SMARTIN News assesses the near‑term outlook as:

  • Stable demand from regional buyers
  • Regulatory-driven variability in miner readiness
  • Higher importance of compliance visibility for traders and operators
  • Potential for short-term freight volatility if approvals accelerate suddenly


The coal market remains fundamentally supported, but operational execution continues to depend heavily on MinerbaOne processing speed and miner compliance discipline.

SMARTIN News Market Desk

SMARTIN News continues to monitor MinerbaOne activity, regulatory developments, and coal shipment flows across Indonesia. 

For corporate intelligence updates, contact: market@smartin.news 

Indonesia Market Signals — Coming Month (Aug 2026)

1. Nickel sector entering a volatility window

Indonesia’s nickel market is heading into a tight, uncertain August–September window driven by policy and quota disruptions.

  • RKAB mid‑year quota review is underway; revisions expected by July 31. This is a major supply‑side driver. 
  • Weda Bay mine halted production after exhausting its quota; approvals expected in July. This creates temporary supply tightness. 
  • Structural oversupply still exists, so price support is mixed — volatility, not a straight rally. 
  • Nickel prices projected to rise ~12% in 2026 (World Bank). Long‑term bullish structural demand (EV, renewables). 


SMARTIN signal:   

Expect short‑term tightness + policy‑driven volatility in August. Nickel ore shipments may face documentation delays, quota uncertainty, and buyer hesitation.

2. Coal sector facing a major structural shift (DSI gatekeeper)

Indonesia’s coal exports are preparing for a new regulatory era, but the implementation timeline has now shifted.

  • The mandatory DSI (Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia) gatekeeper system — originally planned for 1 September 2026 — has been postponed to 1 January 2027. This delay reflects incomplete technical guidelines, coordination gaps, and industry pushback.
  • Traders continue to slow or postpone shipments while waiting for the final “petunjuk teknis” (technical instructions).
  • Some cargoes remain on hold temporarily, pending clarity on documentation flow, pricing references, and surveyor integration.
  • Market reaction when the plan was first unveiled:
    • JCI dropped 2.4%
    • Energy & mining counters underperformed
    • Bid‑ask spreads widened for near‑term coal parcels


SMARTIN signal:

August will still behave like a pre‑transition month, but without the September enforcement pressure. Expect cautious cargo commitments, documentation friction, and pricing hesitation, with the real regulatory shift now pushed to January 2027.

3. Export bottlenecks and buyer hesitation

Across coal, palm oil, and nickel:

  • Exporters are waiting for technical guidelines before committing cargoes. 
  • Buyers (China stainless mills, coal importers) show wait‑and‑see sentiment. 
  • Some shipments held temporarily. 


SMARTIN signal:   

Expect slower deal flow, longer negotiation cycles, and more cautious buyers in August.

4. Coal price outlook remains upward‑biased

World Bank signals:

  • Coal prices forecast to rise ~20% in 2026. 
  • Indonesia remains the world’s largest coal exporter.
  • Domestic supply tightening + global energy disruptions = supportive pricing.


SMARTIN signal:   

Coal freight demand remains stable to firm, but regulatory friction may delay shipments.

5. Nickel demand remains structurally strong

World Bank notes:

  • Nickel prices projected to rise 12% in 2026. 
  • EV and renewable sectors continue to support demand.
  • Indonesia’s upstream constraints (RKAB quotas, sulfur supply risks) keep markets tight.


SMARTIN signal:  

Nickel cargoes may see higher inquiry levels, but slower approvals and quota‑driven supply constraints.

SMARTIN Operational Takeaways (Aug 2026)

1. Expect slower cargo confirmations

Coal and nickel exporters are waiting for regulatory clarity → slower deal flow.


2. Documentation delays likely

New DSI gatekeeper rules create friction in August ahead of September enforcement.


3. Buyers cautious, spreads wider

China, India, and regional buyers are adopting wait‑and‑see positioning.


4. Freight demand stable but timing irregular

Coal demand strong; nickel demand steady; but shipment timing may be inconsistent.


5. August is a “transition month”

Expect uncertainty, delays, policy noise, and price volatility.

SOUTHEAST ASIA DRY BULK MARKET SIGNALS

Philippines Nickel Ore Shipments Impacted by Weather

 Loading activity in Surigao and Dinagat has been inconsistent due to intermittent rainfall and sea conditions. Key impacts:

  • Slower barge movement
  • Loading delays at several anchorages
  • More cautious vessel scheduling from operators


Demand from Chinese buyers remains stable, but shipment timing is increasingly weather‑dependent.

Vietnam Clinker Export Activity Strengthens

Vietnamese clinker producers continue to push strong export volumes, supported by demand from:

  • Bangladesh
  • East Africa
  • South China


This has resulted in:

  • Higher spot vessel inquiries
  • Tightening supply of geared tonnage
  • More competitive freight levels for 28K–38K DWT segments


Vietnam remains one of the most active clinker exporters in the region.

Cambodia Cassava Export Season Active

Sihanoukville is experiencing steady cassava export flow, driven by Chinese buyers and regional processors.


Market observations:

  • Stable vessel calls
  • Predictable loading windows
  • Strong demand for small handy vessels


Cassava remains a reliable seasonal commodity supporting regional dry bulk employment.

Regional Freight Sentiment

 Market sentiment across Southeast Asia is currently:

  • Stable to firm for small handy and supramax segments
  • Weather‑sensitive for Philippines nickel ore
  • Demand‑supported for Vietnam clinker
  • Seasonally active for Cambodia cassava


Operators are prioritizing flexibility and short‑haul employment due to shifting cargo windows.

SMARTIN News Market Desk

SMARTIN News continues monitoring cargo flows, vessel demand, and regional dry bulk signals across Southeast Asia. 


For market intelligence updates: market@smartin.news 

Indonesia Mineral Export Policy — 2026 (Corrected Overview)

✅ 1. Raw mineral exports ARE banned — but with exceptions

Indonesia bans the export of raw minerals (ore) under the 2009 Mining Law and subsequent regulations.


This includes:

  • Nickel ore → fully banned since Jan 2020
  • Bauxite ore → banned since June 2023
  • Copper ore → banned, but with temporary exemptions
  • Tin ore → restricted, not fully banned


The purpose: force domestic processing (smelters) and increase downstream value.

⚠️ 2. 2026 status: “Ban” is not absolute — exemptions exist

Indonesia allows temporary export permits for certain minerals if smelter construction is ≥50% complete.


Minerals with temporary export allowances in 2026:

  • Copper concentrate
  • Lead concentrate
  • Zinc concentrate
  • Iron concentrate


These permits are time‑limited and reviewed under RKAB (Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya).


Minerals with full export ban:

  • Nickel ore
  • Bauxite ore


No raw exports allowed.

🔍 3. Nickel: Indonesia’s strictest enforcement

Nickel is fully banned in raw form.


Only processed products can be exported:

  • NPI
  • Ferronickel
  • Matte
  • MHP
  • Nickel sulfate
  • Stainless steel
  • Battery precursors


Nickel ore export = 0% allowed.

🔍 4. DSI Gatekeeper Rule — Updated Implementation Date

Originally announced for 1 September 2026, the government has postponed the mandatory DSI coal export gatekeeper system to:

➡️ 1 January 2027 (updated target)


This postponement is due to:

  • incomplete technical guidelines
  • unresolved coordination between ESDM, Customs, and DSI
  • industry pushback and operational concerns
  • need for system testing with exporters and surveyors


As of now, August–December 2026 will continue under the existing coal export mechanism, without DSI enforcement.

🔍 5. 2026 tightening: Government pushing “full downstreaming”

The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (ESDM) has stated that:

  • All raw mineral exports will be phased out
  • Only processed or semi‑processed minerals will be allowed
  • Smelter progress determines export permissions


This is why RKAB approvals and quota renewals are critical.

📌 SMARTIN Summary

Indonesia continues to enforce a strict ban on raw mineral exports in 2026, covering nickel ore and bauxite entirely. Copper, lead, zinc, and iron concentrates may still be exported under temporary permits tied to smelter progress. Coal is not part of the mineral ban but will enter a new regulatory phase under DSI starting January 2027. Market participants should expect tighter documentation, quota‑based delays, and increased policy‑driven volatility across the mining sector. 

📌 Week 30

Coal exports from Kalimantan reached 4.2 mt this week, with China and India absorbing the bulk of shipments. 

Coal exports from Kalimantan reached 4.2 million tons this week, with China and India absorbing the majority of shipments.

  • China: Continued strong demand for thermal coal to support power generation, with steady intake from Kalimantan ports.
  • India: Maintained firm buying interest, balancing domestic supply gaps with Indonesian imports.
  • Port Signals: Loading operations at Balikpapan and Samarinda ran smoothly, with minimal congestion reported.
  • Market Context: Stable freight rates and resilient Pacific basin demand provided a floor for vessel employment, ensuring steady outbound flows.
  • Higher CV parcels saw firmer interest from Chinese buyers, supporting stable FOB activity. 

📌 Week 30

Coal exports from Kalimantan reached 4.2 mt this week, with China and India absorbing the bulk of shipments. 

Coal exports from Kalimantan reached 4.2 million tons this week, with China and India absorbing the majority of shipments.

  • China: Continued strong demand for thermal coal to support power generation, with steady intake from Kalimantan ports.
  • India: Maintained firm buying interest, balancing domestic supply gaps with Indonesian imports.
  • Port Signals: Loading operations at Balikpapan and Samarinda ran smoothly, with minimal congestion reported.
  • Market Context: Stable freight rates and resilient Pacific basin demand provided a floor for vessel employment, ensuring steady outbound flows.
  • Higher CV parcels saw firmer interest from Chinese buyers, supporting stable FOB activity. 

📌 Week 30

Processed nickel flows to the Philippines remain steady, reinforcing Indonesia’s role in regional mineral supply chains. 

Processed nickel products — primarily nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferronickel — continue to move steadily from Indonesia to the Philippines, reinforcing Indonesia’s role in regional mineral supply chains. While raw ore exports remain banned under Indonesia’s downstreaming policy, the Philippines relies on Indonesian processed nickel to feed its smelting and refining capacity. 


 Sulawesi–Philippines vessel rotations continued without disruption, ensuring reliable supply to smelters. 

Policy Sidebar – Nickel Exports

Indonesia banned the export of raw nickel ore in January 2020. Current flows to the Philippines are in the form of processed nickel products (such as nickel pig iron and ferronickel), which remain permitted under Indonesia’s downstreaming policy. By year‑end 2026, all nickel exports will be centralized through state‑owned enterprises. 

Industry Outlook

Key nickel stakeholders will convene in Jakarta this November for the 5th Nickel Producers, Processors & Buyers Conference, where 2027 supply‑chain strategies and downstreaming decisions are expected to take shape. 

📌 Week 30

Inbound Cargo Overview

Indonesia recorded steady inbound cargo activity across Week 30, driven primarily by sulphur shipments for nickel smelters in Sulawesi. These facilities rely heavily on sulphur for acid production and processing, making it one of the country’s most consistent and strategically important inbound dry bulk commodities. Vessel flow into smelter-linked ports remained predictable, supported by stable industrial demand and smooth discharge operations.


Overall sentiment was neutral‑positive, with no major operational disruptions reported.

Sulphur Demand — Sulawesi Smelters Lead Imports

Sulphur remained the dominant inbound commodity this week, with strong intake from major nickel processing hubs:

  • Morowali (IMIP)
  • Konawe (IWIP)
  • Bantaeng
  • Pomalaa
  • Bahodopi


These smelters continued to consume sulphur at high volumes for HPAL and refining operations. Cargo flow was steady, reflecting ongoing expansion and stable production cycles across Sulawesi’s industrial corridor.

Sulphur Import Origins

Indonesia continues to import sulphur primarily from the Middle East — led by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and Oman — forming the backbone of supply for nickel smelters in Sulawesi such as Morowali (IMIP), Konawe (IWIP), Bantaeng, Pomalaa, and Bahodopi. Supplemental volumes also arrive from East Asia, including China, South Korea, and Japan, supporting stable intake during refinery maintenance cycles or when Middle Eastern supply tightens. Smaller, irregular parcels occasionally originate from India, Russia, and Turkmenistan depending on regional refinery output. Tracking these origins provides a clear indicator of smelter activity, industrial demand, and vessel flow into Sulawesi, helping owners, operators, and charterers anticipate inbound cargo patterns and tonnage requirements. 

Vessel Segments & Cargo Flow

Sulphur parcels were primarily carried by:

  • Supramax
  • Handymax
  • Handysize


Inquiry levels remained consistent throughout Week 30, with owners maintaining balanced offers and charterers securing tonnage without significant rate pressure. Regional short-haul demand stayed firm, supported by predictable smelter intake.

Port Conditions & Discharge Operations

Port operations across Sulawesi were smooth and efficient:

  • Morowali: steady discharge, normal anchorage
  • Konawe: predictable vessel flow, minimal delays
  • Bantaeng: stable operations, weather manageable
  • Pomalaa: consistent intake, no major stoppages
  • Bahodopi: normal turnaround, efficient handling


Weather windows were favorable, with limited interruptions across all smelter-linked ports.

Freight Sentiment & Market Signals

Freight sentiment for inbound sulphur remained stable:

  • Indo–China routes: neutral
  • Indo–India routes: steady
  • Regional trades: firm demand
  • Owners’ offers: balanced, minimal volatility


Sulphur demand continues to provide reliable employment for Supramax and Handysize vessels, reinforcing Indonesia’s position as a major industrial importer.

Other Inbound Cargo Notes

While sulphur dominated inbound flows, minor volumes of supporting industrial materials were also recorded:

  • gypsum for cement and industrial use
  • caustic soda for refining
  • general bulk parcels for smelter operations


These cargoes remained secondary but stable across Week 30.

SMARTIN Import Signals

  • Sulphur remains Indonesia’s most strategic inbound commodity
  • Sulawesi smelters continue to lead national sulphur intake
  • Vessel flow into Morowali and Konawe stays consistent
  • Supramax/Handymax demand supported by predictable cargo intake
  • Port conditions stable across all smelter-linked hubs
  • Industrial expansion continues to support inbound cargo stability

Summary

Week 30 delivered a stable inbound cargo environment across Indonesia, led by strong sulphur demand from Sulawesi’s nickel smelting sector. Vessel flow was predictable, port operations were smooth, and freight sentiment remained neutral‑positive. Sulphur continues to be a key indicator of industrial strength and smelter production activity, reinforcing its importance within Indonesia’s inbound dry bulk ecosystem. 

📌 Week 30

Surabaya recorded steady fertilizer import activity this week, supporting agricultural demand across Java and surrounding regions. Vessel flow into Surabaya’s main terminals remained predictable, with consistent Supramax and Handysize employment and smooth discharge operations. Fertilizer intake continues to be one of the most stable inbound cargo streams for East Java, driven by seasonal agricultural cycles and ongoing distribution requirements. 

Finished Fertilizer Products — Stable Weekly Intake

Finished fertilizer products arrived in steady volumes throughout Week 30, with no major fluctuations in demand. Cargoes were discharged efficiently, supported by stable port conditions and favorable weather windows. Inquiry levels from receivers remained consistent, reflecting normal replenishment cycles across Java’s agricultural supply chain. 

Rock Phosphate — Key Raw Material for Domestic Production

In addition to finished fertilizer products, Indonesia imported rock phosphate, a critical raw material used in domestic fertilizer manufacturing. Rock phosphate shipments complemented broader fertilizer intake, ensuring stable supply for processing facilities in Java. Vessel flow for rock phosphate remained smooth, with predictable discharge operations and minimal delays reported across Week 30. 

Port Conditions & Discharge Operations

Surabaya’s terminals operated efficiently throughout the week:

  • steady vessel arrivals
  • normal anchorage conditions
  • minimal weather interruptions
  • smooth cargo handling and documentation flow


No significant operational disruptions were recorded.

Freight Sentiment & Vessel Employment

Freight sentiment for fertilizer and rock phosphate remained neutral:

  • Supramax/Handysize demand stable
  • regional short‑haul trades firm
  • owners’ offers balanced
  • charterers securing tonnage without rate pressure


Inbound agricultural cargoes continue to provide reliable employment for regional vessels.

SMARTIN Fertilizer Signals

  • Surabaya remains the primary gateway for fertilizer imports into Java
  • rock phosphate intake complements finished fertilizer volumes
  • vessel flow steady across Supramax/Handysize segments
  • port conditions stable with predictable turnaround
  • agricultural demand continues to support inbound cargo stability

Summary

Week 30 delivered a stable fertilizer import environment for Surabaya, with consistent volumes of finished products and rock phosphate supporting Java’s agricultural sector. Vessel flow was predictable, port operations were smooth, and freight sentiment remained neutral‑positive. Fertilizer and rock phosphate continue to form a reliable inbound cargo base for regional dry bulk employment.

Coal price snapshot

Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) — 24 July 2026

  • ICI 1 (6500 GAR): USD 125.22/t
  • ICI 2 (5800 GAR): USD 101.46/t
  • ICI 3 (5000 GAR): USD 82.04/t
  • ICI 4 (4200 GAR): USD 62.48/t
  • ICI 5 (3400 GAR): USD 39.86/t


Prices show mild week‑on‑week softening but remain elevated versus June levels, especially in higher GAR bands.


HBA — July 2026 (Period I)

  • 6,322 kcal GAR: USD 126.58/t
  • 5,300 kcal GAR: USD 90.94/t
  • 4,100 kcal GAR: USD 62.59/t
  • 3,400 kcal GAR: USD 41.91/t


HBA’s broad increase versus June reflects firm global demand and resilient power‑sector consumption.


Market read: Coal pricing remains supportive for Indonesian producers and exporters, with high‑GAR grades still commanding strong premiums.

SMARTIN Benchmark Suite – Weekly Coal Prices

Weekly snapshot of Indonesia’s key thermal coal benchmarks, reflecting market movements across HBA, Argus, and McCloskey. 

 

HBA

HBA1 (6322 GAR) : $131.85

HBA2 (5300 GAR) : $89.90

HBA3 (4100 GAR) : $63.25

HBA4 (3400 GAR) : $45.08



Argus / ICI

ICI1 (6500 GAR) : $127.72

ICI2 (5800 GAR) : $92.87

ICI3 (5000 GAR) : $72.24

ICI4 (4200 GAR) : $51.18

ICI5 (3400 GAR) : $31.78



McCloskey

M63 (6300 GAR) : $121.08

M58 (5800 GAR) : $102.66

M50 (5000 GAR) : $82.10

M42 (4200 GAR) : $62.06

M34 (3400 GAR) : $40.24

 

Micro‑Commentary

Benchmark coal prices showed mixed performance this week. Lower- and mid-CV products maintained upward momentum, while high-CV coal remained range-bound. McCloskey assessments indicate stronger pricing for 4200–5800 GAR coal compared with ICI references, highlighting continued demand for medium-rank Indonesian material.

📌 Week 30

Market Sentiment — Week 30 Overview

Dry bulk freight sentiment held steady across Indonesia this week, supported by consistent coal and mineral flows from major loading regions. Panamax and Supramax demand remained firm, while Handysize activity stayed resilient on short‑haul regional trades. Owners maintained a balanced stance, with charterers showing stable inquiry levels across Indo–India and Indo–China routes.


Overall, the market tone was neutral‑positive, with no major disruptions reported in vessel flow or port operations.

Panamax & Supramax Activity

Panamax demand was driven by steady coal liftings out of South Kalimantan and East Kalimantan. Supramax activity remained healthy, supported by mixed cargoes including coal, nickel ore, and general bulk parcels.

  • Indo–India freight sentiment: stable
  • Indo–China freight sentiment: slightly firmer on mid‑CV coal demand
  • Owners maintained steady offers with minimal volatility
  • Charterers continued to secure tonnage without significant rate pressure

Handysize & Regional Trades

Handysize vessels saw consistent short‑haul demand across Indonesia, particularly for:

  • coal parcels
  • bagged cargo
  • general bulk
  • regional mineral movements


Rates remained stable, with no major congestion affecting smaller vessel classes.

Port Conditions & Turnaround Times

Port operations across Indonesia were generally smooth:

  • Taboneo: normal queues, steady loading
  • Muara Berau: stable conditions, predictable turnaround
  • Kendal: no significant delays
  • Balikpapan: consistent operations, weather manageable


No major weather disruptions were reported during Week 30.

Vessel Flow & Congestion Signals

Vessel flow remained predictable across major coal and mineral hubs. Congestion stayed within normal ranges, with no abnormal waiting times.

  • Panamax/Supramax flow: steady
  • Handy flow: consistent
  • Tug and barge operations: normal
  • Anchorage conditions: stable

Post‑Fixture Performance

Post‑fixture operations were smooth across Week 30:

  • loading/discharging delays: minimal
  • NOR acceptance: normal
  • weather stoppages: limited
  • documentation flow: stable
  • agency coordination: efficient across SMARTIN ports


No significant disputes or operational escalations were reported.

SMARTIN Operational Signals — Week 30

  • Mid‑CV coal demand continues to support Supramax/Panamax activity
  • Indo–India routes show slight upward pressure
  • Port conditions remain stable across major hubs
  • Weather windows favorable for loading
  • Owners maintain balanced sentiment with steady offers

Summary

Week 30 delivered a stable dry bulk environment across Indonesia. Freight sentiment remained neutral‑positive, vessel flow was predictable, and port operations were smooth. Charterers and owners maintained balanced positions, with no major disruptions affecting coal or mineral movement. 

📌 Week 30

 Balikpapan coal terminals reported smooth operations with minimal congestion this week. 

  • Berthing Efficiency: Vessel turnaround times remained within normal ranges, with no significant delays reported.
  • Cargo Readiness: Coal stockpiles at loading points were adequate, ensuring steady barge‑to‑ship transfers.
  • Weather Impact: Favorable conditions supported uninterrupted loading, with no disruptions from heavy rain or swell.
  • Favorable weather supported uninterrupted loading across major terminals. 


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Announcement

Latest verified figures from Indonesia’s official sources (BPS & ESDM), covering national trade, coal production, and nickel exports. Published with a delay, these datasets provide the structural baseline behind SMARTIN’s weekly market intelligence. 

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