Indonesia’s coal sector continues to move through a period of regulatory recalibration, operational adjustments, and shifting export dynamics. MinerbaOne activity remains elevated as miners work through compliance requirements for the 2026 cycle, creating ripple effects across production planning and shipment schedules.
The 2026 RKAB (Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya) approval process remains ongoing for many mid‑tier and smaller miners. Several companies are still awaiting final validation, resulting in:
This has created uneven supply visibility for traders and operators planning Q3–Q4 shipments.
Regulatory checks have intensified across multiple provinces. MinerbaOne has increased scrutiny on:
As a result, some miners are experiencing longer lead times before receiving export clearance, affecting vessel nomination timelines and FOB scheduling.
The HBA reference price has shown mild upward movement driven by:
This upward pressure is influencing contract negotiations for both spot and term shipments.
Field intelligence indicates:
These factors are contributing to tighter scheduling windows and increased reliance on real‑time coordination.
SMARTIN News assesses the near‑term outlook as:
The coal market remains fundamentally supported, but operational execution continues to depend heavily on MinerbaOne processing speed and miner compliance discipline.
SMARTIN News continues to monitor MinerbaOne activity, regulatory developments, and coal shipment flows across Indonesia.
For corporate intelligence updates, contact: market@smartin.news
Indonesia’s nickel market is heading into a tight, uncertain August–September window driven by policy and quota disruptions.
SMARTIN signal:
Expect short‑term tightness + policy‑driven volatility in August. Nickel ore shipments may face documentation delays, quota uncertainty, and buyer hesitation.
Indonesia’s coal exports are preparing for a new regulatory era, but the implementation timeline has now shifted.
SMARTIN signal:
August will still behave like a pre‑transition month, but without the September enforcement pressure. Expect cautious cargo commitments, documentation friction, and pricing hesitation, with the real regulatory shift now pushed to January 2027.
Across coal, palm oil, and nickel:
SMARTIN signal:
Expect slower deal flow, longer negotiation cycles, and more cautious buyers in August.
World Bank signals:
SMARTIN signal:
Coal freight demand remains stable to firm, but regulatory friction may delay shipments.
World Bank notes:
SMARTIN signal:
Nickel cargoes may see higher inquiry levels, but slower approvals and quota‑driven supply constraints.
1. Expect slower cargo confirmations
Coal and nickel exporters are waiting for regulatory clarity → slower deal flow.
2. Documentation delays likely
New DSI gatekeeper rules create friction in August ahead of September enforcement.
3. Buyers cautious, spreads wider
China, India, and regional buyers are adopting wait‑and‑see positioning.
4. Freight demand stable but timing irregular
Coal demand strong; nickel demand steady; but shipment timing may be inconsistent.
5. August is a “transition month”
Expect uncertainty, delays, policy noise, and price volatility.
Loading activity in Surigao and Dinagat has been inconsistent due to intermittent rainfall and sea conditions. Key impacts:
Demand from Chinese buyers remains stable, but shipment timing is increasingly weather‑dependent.
Vietnamese clinker producers continue to push strong export volumes, supported by demand from:
This has resulted in:
Vietnam remains one of the most active clinker exporters in the region.
Sihanoukville is experiencing steady cassava export flow, driven by Chinese buyers and regional processors.
Market observations:
Cassava remains a reliable seasonal commodity supporting regional dry bulk employment.
Market sentiment across Southeast Asia is currently:
Operators are prioritizing flexibility and short‑haul employment due to shifting cargo windows.
SMARTIN News continues monitoring cargo flows, vessel demand, and regional dry bulk signals across Southeast Asia.
For market intelligence updates: market@smartin.news
Indonesia bans the export of raw minerals (ore) under the 2009 Mining Law and subsequent regulations.
This includes:
The purpose: force domestic processing (smelters) and increase downstream value.
Indonesia allows temporary export permits for certain minerals if smelter construction is ≥50% complete.
Minerals with temporary export allowances in 2026:
These permits are time‑limited and reviewed under RKAB (Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Biaya).
Minerals with full export ban:
No raw exports allowed.
Nickel is fully banned in raw form.
Only processed products can be exported:
Nickel ore export = 0% allowed.
Originally announced for 1 September 2026, the government has postponed the mandatory DSI coal export gatekeeper system to:
This postponement is due to:
As of now, August–December 2026 will continue under the existing coal export mechanism, without DSI enforcement.
The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (ESDM) has stated that:
This is why RKAB approvals and quota renewals are critical.
Indonesia continues to enforce a strict ban on raw mineral exports in 2026, covering nickel ore and bauxite entirely. Copper, lead, zinc, and iron concentrates may still be exported under temporary permits tied to smelter progress. Coal is not part of the mineral ban but will enter a new regulatory phase under DSI starting January 2027. Market participants should expect tighter documentation, quota‑based delays, and increased policy‑driven volatility across the mining sector.

Coal exports from Kalimantan reached 4.2 mt this week, with China and India absorbing the bulk of shipments.
Coal exports from Kalimantan reached 4.2 million tons this week, with China and India absorbing the majority of shipments.

Coal exports from Kalimantan reached 4.2 mt this week, with China and India absorbing the bulk of shipments.
Coal exports from Kalimantan reached 4.2 million tons this week, with China and India absorbing the majority of shipments.

Processed nickel flows to the Philippines remain steady, reinforcing Indonesia’s role in regional mineral supply chains.
Processed nickel products — primarily nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferronickel — continue to move steadily from Indonesia to the Philippines, reinforcing Indonesia’s role in regional mineral supply chains. While raw ore exports remain banned under Indonesia’s downstreaming policy, the Philippines relies on Indonesian processed nickel to feed its smelting and refining capacity.
Sulawesi–Philippines vessel rotations continued without disruption, ensuring reliable supply to smelters.
Indonesia banned the export of raw nickel ore in January 2020. Current flows to the Philippines are in the form of processed nickel products (such as nickel pig iron and ferronickel), which remain permitted under Indonesia’s downstreaming policy. By year‑end 2026, all nickel exports will be centralized through state‑owned enterprises.
Key nickel stakeholders will convene in Jakarta this November for the 5th Nickel Producers, Processors & Buyers Conference, where 2027 supply‑chain strategies and downstreaming decisions are expected to take shape.

Indonesia recorded steady inbound cargo activity across Week 30, driven primarily by sulphur shipments for nickel smelters in Sulawesi. These facilities rely heavily on sulphur for acid production and processing, making it one of the country’s most consistent and strategically important inbound dry bulk commodities. Vessel flow into smelter-linked ports remained predictable, supported by stable industrial demand and smooth discharge operations.
Overall sentiment was neutral‑positive, with no major operational disruptions reported.
Sulphur remained the dominant inbound commodity this week, with strong intake from major nickel processing hubs:
These smelters continued to consume sulphur at high volumes for HPAL and refining operations. Cargo flow was steady, reflecting ongoing expansion and stable production cycles across Sulawesi’s industrial corridor.
Indonesia continues to import sulphur primarily from the Middle East — led by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and Oman — forming the backbone of supply for nickel smelters in Sulawesi such as Morowali (IMIP), Konawe (IWIP), Bantaeng, Pomalaa, and Bahodopi. Supplemental volumes also arrive from East Asia, including China, South Korea, and Japan, supporting stable intake during refinery maintenance cycles or when Middle Eastern supply tightens. Smaller, irregular parcels occasionally originate from India, Russia, and Turkmenistan depending on regional refinery output. Tracking these origins provides a clear indicator of smelter activity, industrial demand, and vessel flow into Sulawesi, helping owners, operators, and charterers anticipate inbound cargo patterns and tonnage requirements.
Sulphur parcels were primarily carried by:
Inquiry levels remained consistent throughout Week 30, with owners maintaining balanced offers and charterers securing tonnage without significant rate pressure. Regional short-haul demand stayed firm, supported by predictable smelter intake.
Port operations across Sulawesi were smooth and efficient:
Weather windows were favorable, with limited interruptions across all smelter-linked ports.
Freight sentiment for inbound sulphur remained stable:
Sulphur demand continues to provide reliable employment for Supramax and Handysize vessels, reinforcing Indonesia’s position as a major industrial importer.
While sulphur dominated inbound flows, minor volumes of supporting industrial materials were also recorded:
These cargoes remained secondary but stable across Week 30.
Week 30 delivered a stable inbound cargo environment across Indonesia, led by strong sulphur demand from Sulawesi’s nickel smelting sector. Vessel flow was predictable, port operations were smooth, and freight sentiment remained neutral‑positive. Sulphur continues to be a key indicator of industrial strength and smelter production activity, reinforcing its importance within Indonesia’s inbound dry bulk ecosystem.

Surabaya recorded steady fertilizer import activity this week, supporting agricultural demand across Java and surrounding regions. Vessel flow into Surabaya’s main terminals remained predictable, with consistent Supramax and Handysize employment and smooth discharge operations. Fertilizer intake continues to be one of the most stable inbound cargo streams for East Java, driven by seasonal agricultural cycles and ongoing distribution requirements.
Finished fertilizer products arrived in steady volumes throughout Week 30, with no major fluctuations in demand. Cargoes were discharged efficiently, supported by stable port conditions and favorable weather windows. Inquiry levels from receivers remained consistent, reflecting normal replenishment cycles across Java’s agricultural supply chain.
In addition to finished fertilizer products, Indonesia imported rock phosphate, a critical raw material used in domestic fertilizer manufacturing. Rock phosphate shipments complemented broader fertilizer intake, ensuring stable supply for processing facilities in Java. Vessel flow for rock phosphate remained smooth, with predictable discharge operations and minimal delays reported across Week 30.
Surabaya’s terminals operated efficiently throughout the week:
No significant operational disruptions were recorded.
Freight sentiment for fertilizer and rock phosphate remained neutral:
Inbound agricultural cargoes continue to provide reliable employment for regional vessels.
Week 30 delivered a stable fertilizer import environment for Surabaya, with consistent volumes of finished products and rock phosphate supporting Java’s agricultural sector. Vessel flow was predictable, port operations were smooth, and freight sentiment remained neutral‑positive. Fertilizer and rock phosphate continue to form a reliable inbound cargo base for regional dry bulk employment.

Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) — 24 July 2026
Prices show mild week‑on‑week softening but remain elevated versus June levels, especially in higher GAR bands.
HBA — July 2026 (Period I)
HBA’s broad increase versus June reflects firm global demand and resilient power‑sector consumption.
Market read: Coal pricing remains supportive for Indonesian producers and exporters, with high‑GAR grades still commanding strong premiums.
Weekly snapshot of Indonesia’s key thermal coal benchmarks, reflecting market movements across HBA, Argus, and McCloskey.
HBA
HBA1 (6322 GAR) : $131.85
HBA2 (5300 GAR) : $89.90
HBA3 (4100 GAR) : $63.25
HBA4 (3400 GAR) : $45.08
Argus / ICI
ICI1 (6500 GAR) : $127.72
ICI2 (5800 GAR) : $92.87
ICI3 (5000 GAR) : $72.24
ICI4 (4200 GAR) : $51.18
ICI5 (3400 GAR) : $31.78
McCloskey
M63 (6300 GAR) : $121.08
M58 (5800 GAR) : $102.66
M50 (5000 GAR) : $82.10
M42 (4200 GAR) : $62.06
M34 (3400 GAR) : $40.24
Micro‑Commentary
Benchmark coal prices showed mixed performance this week. Lower- and mid-CV products maintained upward momentum, while high-CV coal remained range-bound. McCloskey assessments indicate stronger pricing for 4200–5800 GAR coal compared with ICI references, highlighting continued demand for medium-rank Indonesian material.

Dry bulk freight sentiment held steady across Indonesia this week, supported by consistent coal and mineral flows from major loading regions. Panamax and Supramax demand remained firm, while Handysize activity stayed resilient on short‑haul regional trades. Owners maintained a balanced stance, with charterers showing stable inquiry levels across Indo–India and Indo–China routes.
Overall, the market tone was neutral‑positive, with no major disruptions reported in vessel flow or port operations.
Panamax demand was driven by steady coal liftings out of South Kalimantan and East Kalimantan. Supramax activity remained healthy, supported by mixed cargoes including coal, nickel ore, and general bulk parcels.
Handysize vessels saw consistent short‑haul demand across Indonesia, particularly for:
Rates remained stable, with no major congestion affecting smaller vessel classes.
Port operations across Indonesia were generally smooth:
No major weather disruptions were reported during Week 30.
Vessel flow remained predictable across major coal and mineral hubs. Congestion stayed within normal ranges, with no abnormal waiting times.
Post‑fixture operations were smooth across Week 30:
No significant disputes or operational escalations were reported.
Week 30 delivered a stable dry bulk environment across Indonesia. Freight sentiment remained neutral‑positive, vessel flow was predictable, and port operations were smooth. Charterers and owners maintained balanced positions, with no major disruptions affecting coal or mineral movement.

Balikpapan coal terminals reported smooth operations with minimal congestion this week.
SMARTIN News
Official Intelligence Hub of the SMARTIN Business Ecosystem
SMARTIN Agency
Menara Batavia, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia
Operations Desk
Denis — +62 811 9691 1891
Wahyu — +62 857 8210 0371
Aditya — +62 811 8719 711
Copyright © 2026 SMARTIN News - All Rights Reserve
We use cookies to analyze website traffic and optimize your website experience. By accepting our use of cookies, your data will be aggregated with all other user data.

Latest verified figures from Indonesia’s official sources (BPS & ESDM), covering national trade, coal production, and nickel exports. Published with a delay, these datasets provide the structural baseline behind SMARTIN’s weekly market intelligence.