Market Intelligence

Indonesia’s coal export activity remains firm and stable, supported by strong Asian demand and smoother Kalimantan loading performance.

Weekly Export Volumes (Global Context)

• Global coal shipments (Week 29): 17.89 mnt
• Indonesia: 6.27 mnt (+4.8% w‑o‑w)
• Drivers: steady Chinese & Indian demand, improved barge supply, minimal weather disruption

Operational Signals

• Kalimantan terminals (Samarinda, Muara Berau, Taboneo) operated with predictable loading windows
• Vessel line‑ups remained orderly, supporting Panamax/Supramax employment
• No major congestion or stoppages reported

Market Read

Coal continues to anchor Indonesia’s export performance in Week 31, with stable FOB markers and supportive freight sentiment across Indo–India and Indo–China routes.

Indonesia’s coal export environment remains healthy and stable in Week 31. Vessel line‑ups are smooth, demand from Asia remains firm, and Kalimantan terminals report no operational disruptions. Freight sentiment stays neutral‑firm across Panamax and Supramax corridors, reinforcing coal’s role as the anchor of Indonesia’s commodity flows this week. 

Sulphur remained a high‑priority inbound commodity for Indonesia’s nickel smelters throughout Week 31. Vessel arrivals into Sulawesi continued at a stable pace, reflecting ongoing HPAL and pyrometallurgical operations. 

Key Receiving Ports / Smelter Hubs

• Morowali (IMIP)
• Konawe (IWIP)
• Pomalaa
• Bahodopi
• Bantaeng

Origin Patterns

Week 31 sulphur parcels were sourced primarily from:

• Middle East suppliers (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Oman)
• East Asia (China, South Korea, Japan)
• Supplemental volumes from India, Russia, Turkmenistan

Operational Signals

• Discharge operations remained smooth and predictable
• No major berthing delays reported
• Smelter demand remained steady, supporting consistent Supramax employment

Market read: Sulphur continues to mirror Indonesia’s downstreaming momentum, with Week 31 showing stable intake and uninterrupted smelter operations.

Surabaya maintained its role as a central gateway for fertilizer imports into Java during Week 31.

Cargo Characteristics

• Steady inbound volumes of finished fertilizer products
• Predictable Supramax/Handysize discharge cycles
• Strong inland distribution into East Java farming regions

Operational Signals

• Terminal conditions remained favorable
• No congestion or weather‑related stoppages
• Fertilizer intake aligned with seasonal agricultural demand

Market read: Fertilizer imports remained stable, supporting agricultural supply chains and providing reliable short‑haul employment for regional tonnage.

Rock phosphate imports complemented fertilizer intake, reinforcing Indonesia’s domestic production capacity.

Week 31 Activity

• Consistent inbound parcels into Surabaya
• Smooth discharge operations with predictable berthing windows
• Cargo moved efficiently into processing and blending facilities

Operational Signals

• No delays reported
• Handysize/Supramax rotations remained steady
• Rock phosphate flows matched industrial demand for fertilizer manufacturing

Market read: Rock phosphate continues to strengthen Indonesia’s agricultural input ecosystem, with Week 31 showing stable inbound movement and efficient terminal operations.

Inbound cargo flows across Indonesia remained stable and well‑coordinated. Sulphur intake at Sulawesi smelters stayed firm, fertilizer imports into Surabaya were consistent, and rock phosphate arrivals complemented domestic production needs. Week 31 shows a smooth operational environment with no major disruptions across key import terminals. 

Production Quota

• Quota level: Exceeds 600 million metric tons (MT) for 2026.
• This is a reduction from 790 million MT in 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach to resource management.
• The quota is designed to ensure domestic supply security (especially for PLN’s coal-fired power plants, which require ~154 million MT annually).

Policy Context

• The government introduced new export restrictions under Minister of Trade Regulation No. 15/2026 and MOF Decree 31/2026, shifting to a single gateway export framework.
• Customs authorities now supervise compliance more tightly, preparing for the transition to PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (PT DSI) as the sole state-owned coal exporter by January 2027.

Market Drivers

• Global energy volatility (conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran) disrupted oil and LNG flows, pushing buyers toward coal.
• Benchmark coal prices rebounded in early 2026, with the Reference Coal Price (HBA) rising from USD 106.11/MT in February to USD 121.83/MT in June, and further to USD 123.91/MT by late June.
• This recovery encouraged the government to keep quotas firm rather than cutting further.

Industry Impact

• Many producers faced quota approvals 40–70% lower than their submitted work plans (RKAB), with some miners cut by up to 80%.
• Despite tighter quotas, export flows remain stable, supported by strong demand from China and India.
• The policy aims to stabilize prices, protect state revenue, and preserve reserves for long-term sustainability.

 ESDM signaled no adjustments to current export controls, reinforcing policy stability for producers. 

The upcoming 5th Nickel Producers, Processors & Buyers Conference in Jakarta will serve as a decision forum for 2027 nickel policy alignment, with producers and buyers preparing for tighter ore availability and stricter downstreaming requirements. 

Indonesia’s coal export quota for Q3 2026 remains firm at over 600 million MT. The government is balancing domestic supply security with favorable export conditions, supported by rising global coal prices. Despite tighter quotas for individual miners, outbound flows to China and India remain stable.

Priok maintained steady container and breakbulk activity through Week 31, supported by firm international cargo flows. Yard density remained manageable, vessel turnaround times stable, and no major congestion signals were reported. Import-heavy weeks continue to reflect strong industrial intake and manufacturing demand. 

Surabaya handled consistent fertilizer and rock phosphate arrivals, with Supramax and Handysize discharge operations running smoothly. Terminal conditions remained favorable, with predictable berthing windows and minimal weather interruptions. Inland distribution into East Java proceeded without delay. 

Kalimantan ports (Samarinda, Muara Berau, Taboneo) recorded smoother loading schedules, supporting Indonesia’s Week 31 coal export momentum. Vessel line‑ups were orderly, barge supply adequate, and weather disruptions limited. Export flow remained firm on Indo–India and Indo–China routes. 

Smelter-linked ports at Morowali (IMIP), Konawe (IWIP), Bantaeng, Pomalaa, and Bahodopi continued to receive sulphur parcels from Middle East and East Asia origins. Discharge operations were stable, reflecting ongoing HPAL and refining activity. No significant bottlenecks were reported. 

Northern Sumatra ports maintained balanced regional cargo movement, with moderate container throughput and stable feeder operations into Malaysia and Singapore. No congestion signals emerged during Week 31. 

Makassar recorded steady domestic cargo flow, supporting inter-island distribution across Eastern Indonesia. Terminal operations remained smooth, with predictable vessel rotation and stable yard conditions. 

Port operations across Indonesia remained stable and predictable, with smooth coal loadings in Kalimantan, steady sulphur intake at Sulawesi smelters, and consistent fertilizer/rock phosphate discharge at Surabaya. Container hubs at Priok and Perak maintained firm throughput, reflecting resilient trade momentum and strong industrial demand. 

Processed nickel exports remain structurally strong, reflecting Indonesia’s downstreaming strategy and stable smelter output.

Export Activity

• Smelters in Morowali (IMIP), Konawe (IWIP), Pomalaa, Bahodopi, Bantaeng maintained consistent production
• Outbound shipments include:
  • NPI (Nickel Pig Iron)
  • Ferronickel
  • Matte
  • MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate)
  • Other HPAL intermediates
• Primary destinations: China, ASEAN, Korea, Japan

Operational Signals

• Smelter-linked ports handled processed nickel cargoes with stable berthing windows
• No significant delays or operational constraints reported
• Export flow remains aligned with stainless steel and battery supply chain demand

Market Read

Processed nickel continues to strengthen Indonesia’s industrial export profile, with Week 31 showing steady regional trade links and consistent smelter-driven cargo movement.

⭐ Week 31 Export Summary   

Nickel exports remain stable and consistent, supporting Indonesia’s downstream industrial strategy and regional trade flows. 

Government Quota Policy

• 2026 ore production quota: 260–270 million tonnes
• Down from ~320 million tonnes in 2025
• Industry estimated demand: 340–350 million tonnes
• Policy aims to rebalance global nickel market and support prices

Smelter Utilization

• RKEF smelters: utilization fell to ~76% (from 84% in 2025)
• South & Central Sulawesi: some lines operating below 50% capacity due to ore shortages
• Restarting furnaces is costly, so operators maintain minimal production rather than shut down

Feedstock Adjustments

• ESDM approved additional RKAB quotas in July 2026
• Focused on low‑grade limonite ore and slight increase in saprolite ore
• Purpose: cover smelter feedstock shortages without creating oversupply
• Ensures smelters in Sulawesi and Halmahera can continue operating

Regional Impact

• Sulawesi (Morowali, Konawe, Sorowako, Bahodopi):
  • Smelters report constrained ore supply, reduced throughput
  • Vale Indonesia’s Sorowako smelter among those affected
• Halmahera (IWIP, Obi Island):
  • HPAL projects continue, but feedstock allocation is closely managed
  • Export flows of MHP and matte remain steady, though dependent on quota adjustments

• Supply squeeze: Structural deficit of ~60 million tonnes projected for 2026, raising feedstock vulnerability for smelters
• Operational risk: If quotas remain tight, smelters may run at reduced capacity for extended periods.
• Market effect: Supports higher nickel prices globally, but pressures Indonesia’s downstreaming strategy.

• Vessel employment: Panamax and Supramax segments remain well‑supported on Indo–India and Indo–China coal routes; Handysize employment stable on fertilizer and rock phosphate into Surabaya.
• Port conditions: Kalimantan loadings smoother; Sulawesi discharge operations steady; Surabaya terminals operating without major disruption.
• Freight tone: Sentiment neutral‑to‑firm, with owners and charterers finding balanced ground on key regional routes.

Overall read: Week 31 presents a stable, commercially healthy environment for dry bulk shipping linked to Indonesia’s coal, smelter inputs, and agricultural cargo flows.

Week 31 opens with a neutral‑to‑firm tone across Indonesia-linked dry bulk routes. Owners and charterers continue to find balanced ground, supported by stable coal loadings in Kalimantan, steady smelter‑input discharge in Sulawesi, and consistent agricultural cargo flow into Surabaya. No major volatility emerged across the regional freight landscape. 

Panamax demand remained solid throughout Week 31:

• Indo–India coal continues to anchor employment, supported by strong Indian power‑sector intake.
• Indo–China routes remain active on steady Chinese buying and improved vessel line‑ups.
• Weather disruptions in Kalimantan were minimal, allowing smoother loading windows.

Market read: Panamax sentiment stays firm, with owners maintaining confidence on forward employment.

Supramax vessels saw steady utilization across Indonesia:

• Coal shipments from Kalimantan remained consistent, with improved barge supply and predictable loading schedules.
• Sulphur discharge at Sulawesi smelters (IMIP, IWIP, Pomalaa, Bantaeng, Bahodopi) continued without major delay.
• Agricultural inputs (fertilizer + rock phosphate) into Surabaya provided reliable short‑haul employment.

Market read: Supramax activity remains balanced, supported by both export and inbound industrial cargoes.

Handysize demand held stable across Week 31:

• Regular fertilizer and rock phosphate parcels into Surabaya.
• Inter-island distribution across Makassar, Balikpapan, and Bitung remained predictable.
• Light industrial cargoes and bagged commodities supported short‑haul rotations.

Market read: Handysize employment remains steady, with no congestion signals at key discharge ports.

Kalimantan (Coal Loadings)

• Smoother loading schedules
• Adequate barge supply
• Minimal weather stoppages
• Strong Indo–India/China demand

Sulawesi (Smelter Inputs)

• Stable sulphur discharge
• Predictable berthing windows
• No major operational disruptions

Surabaya (Agricultural Inputs)

• Smooth fertilizer and rock phosphate discharge
• Consistent Supramax/Handysize rotation
• Favorable terminal conditions

Priok & Perak (Containers & Breakbulk)

• Balanced throughput
• No congestion signals
• Strong international cargo flow

• Panamax: Firm
• Supramax: Stable
• Handysize: Steady
• Owners’ sentiment: Neutral‑positive
• Charterers’ sentiment: Balanced
• Forward view: Supportive on Indo–India and Indo–China coal demand

Dry bulk shipping across Indonesia remains stable and commercially healthy, supported by firm coal exports, steady smelter‑input imports, and consistent agricultural cargo flow. Vessel line‑ups are orderly, port conditions smooth, and freight sentiment neutral‑firm across core regional routes. 

The Baltic Dry Index held a stable mid‑range position throughout Week 31, reflecting balanced global demand and steady vessel employment across major dry bulk segments. Freight sentiment remained neutral‑firm, with no major volatility across the global market. 

• Capesize (BCI): Firm on strong iron ore demand into China, providing upward support to the upper index.
• Panamax (BPI): Stable‑firm, driven by active Indo–India coal flow and steady grain movements.
• Supramax (BSI): Neutral‑positive, supported by regional coal shipments and minor bulk activity across Asia.
• Handysize (BHSI): Steady on agricultural cargoes, fertilizer parcels, and domestic trades.

Week 31’s BDI performance reflects a balanced global freight environment, with Capesize strength anchoring the index and Panamax/Supramax segments benefiting from consistent Asia‑linked commodity flows. Handysize employment remains predictable, supported by agricultural and industrial cargo distribution. Overall, the index signals healthy vessel utilization and a stable freight backdrop aligned with Indonesia’s regional shipping conditions. 

BDI movements in Week 31 reinforce a neutral‑firm freight landscape, providing a supportive global benchmark for Indonesia’s dry bulk employment and port activity.