1. Coal Exports Reached 231.06 Million Tonnes by Early July
Indonesia’s Energy Ministry reported cumulative coal exports of 231.06 Mt as of early July 2026. Export revenue reached US$14.09 billion, with exports representing 63% of total coal production (367.06 Mt) at that point.
2. May 2026 Was the Strongest Export Month of the Year
According to a Petromindo update published on July 1, Indonesia recorded its highest monthly coal export volume of 2026 in May, driven largely by stronger Chinese demand. This momentum helped support export activity entering July.
3. Government Avoided Export Restrictions
A Petromindo report dated July 16 noted that the government decided not to impose coal export restrictions, despite concerns over domestic supply tightness. This clarification eased market expectations of potential policy intervention similar to previous years.
4. Logistics Disruptions Emerged in July
Market commentary referenced by Petromindo and other external sources highlighted low water levels and barging disruptions along the Barito River in Kalimantan. These conditions led to shipment delays and several force majeure declarations, affecting July loading schedules.
July 2026 Export Estimate Summary
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Monthly Export Volume | 47 Mt |
| Bearish Scenario | 44-45 Mt |
| Base Case Scenario | 46-48 Mt |
| Bullish Scenario | 49-51 Mt |
| Average Weekly Exports | 10.5-11.0 Mt |
| Week 30 Estimate | 10.2 Mt |
W31 reflects only 27-31 July and does not represent a full calendar week.
Weekly Export Estimates
| Week | Date Range | Estimated Volume (Mt) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| W27 | 29 Jun – 05 Jul | 11.2 | Strong loading pace |
| W28 | 06 Jul – 12 Jul | 10.8 | Stable exports |
| W29 | 13 Jul – 19 Jul | 11.0 | Near monthly peak |
| W30 | 20 Jul – 26 Jul | 10.2 | Slight logistics slowdown |
| W31* | 27 Jul – 31 Jul | 3.8 | Partial week |
Week 30 destinations
| Destination | Estimated Volume (Mt) |
|---|---|
| China | 4.5-5.0 |
| India | 1.5-2.0 |
| Vietnam | 0.8-1.0 |
| Philippines | 0.7-0.9 |
| Japan / Korea / Taiwan | 1.2-1.5 |
| Others | 0.8-1.0 |
*W31 represents only the July portion of the week.
